Arch Manning revives his season with less NIL and more football

Arch Manning kicked off the 2025 season as the natural heir to the Heisman Trophy. With +650 odds, the Texas quarterback was the most talked-about name in college football. Analysts like Paul Finebaum compared him to Tim Tebow, and his last name placed him under a media spotlight few athletes can handle. But after Texas lost to Ohio State in Week 1, his odds jumped to +1600. And things only got worse from there.

In his first five games, Arch Manning completed just 60% of his passes, threw five interceptions, and totaled 1158 yards. Texas dropped out of the AP poll, and fans started calling for backup Matthew Caldwell. According to Essentiallysports, Manning’s NIL valuation, which started at $6.5 million, fell to $4.8 million. His last deal came in August with Warby Parker. The market turned on him as quickly as it had embraced him.

Offensive Player of the Week

But Arch Manning didn’t fold. Against Mississippi State, he threw for a career-high 346 yards and three touchdowns. Then, against Vanderbilt, he completed 25 of 33 passes for 328 yards and another three scores, including a 75-yard touchdown on the game’s first play. In just two weeks, Manning beat two top-10 teams—Oklahoma and Vanderbilt—racked up 674 passing yards and seven touchdowns, and earned SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

Two more Longhorns claim SEC Players of the Week recognition🤘🏻🤘🏻

Well deserved honors for Arch Manning and Colin Simmons who helped lead our Horns to a victory over No. 9 Vanderbilt on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/wAg7pKacAJ

— John Bianco (@UT_Bianco) November 3, 2025

Now, Arch Manning has 2123 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. The Heisman may be a long shot with +25000 odds, but Texas sits at 7-2 and still dreams of a national title. To get there, Manning will need to shine against Georgia (ranked No. 6), Arkansas, and undefeated Texas A&M (No. 3). If teams like Ole Miss or Alabama stumble, the Longhorns could sneak into the playoffs.

Arch Manning’s 2025 journey is a lesson in resilience. From media darling to public target, and now a rebuilding leader. His last name carries weight, but his grit is starting to carry more. And while NIL deals may have cooled off, his game is heating up Texas’s postseason hopes once again.