Is LeBron James leaving? The 10% that’s already making the Lakers nervous

The story between LeBron James and the Lakers has always had a cinematic flair. Since arriving in 2018, the four-time NBA champion has been the face of a franchise caught between its glorious past and the relentless pressure to win again. But now, at nearly 41 years old, the script might be shifting.

According to Lakers insider and The Athletic contributor Jovan Buha, the chances of LeBron James requesting a trade have gone up by 10% in recent weeks. On his YouTube channel, Buha explained that he moved from a 95% likelihood of LeBron staying in Los Angeles to 85%. While that’s still a strong number, the remaining 15% of doubt is already stirring noise in the purple-and-gold ecosystem.

Possible scenarios

Sportskeeda picked up Buha’s comments and laid out two scenarios that could accelerate LeBron’s departure from the Lakers. One is that the King announces his retirement at the end of this season. The other is that the Lakers fall out of serious contention by January. Sitting in seventh or eighth place in the Western Conference. In that case, LeBron James might look for a team with real title aspirations—especially if he feels this could be his final campaign.

And even though time keeps ticking, LeBron James continues to defy logic. In the 2024–2025 season, he averaged 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.2 assists, shooting 51.3% from the field. He was selected to his 21st All-Star Game and led the Lakers to a third-place finish in the conference. His level remains elite, but patience isn’t infinite.

A sign of pragmatism

LeBron James’s decision to opt into his contract rather than renegotiate a new one was also seen as a pragmatic move. He had never taken that route before in his career, which fueled speculation about his future. And while there are no concrete signs that he’s considering retirement, the silence around his long-term plans leaves room for interpretation.

Meanwhile, the Lakers have doubled down on continuity and depth in their roster. They’ve kept key pieces like Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, and D’Angelo Russell. But if the team doesn’t deliver on the court, their flexibility shrinks. And with LeBron James, every season feels like it could be the last.

For now, the King remains on his throne in Los Angeles. But in the NBA, reigns can shift locations in a matter of weeks. And if LeBron James has shown us anything, it’s that he’s not afraid to move the pieces when the board no longer offers a path to victory.